The Inaccuracy of Clinical and Actuarial Predictions of Dangerous Behavior

The prediction of dangerous and/or violent behavior is important to the conduct of the United States criminal justice system when it makes decisions about restrictions of personal freedom such as preventive detention, forensic commitment, parole, and in some states such as Texas, when to permit an execution to proceed of an individual found guilty of a capital crime. This article discusses the prediction of dangerous behavior both through clinical judgment as well as actuarial assessment. The general conclusion drawn is that for both clinical and actuarial prediction of dangerous behavior, we are far from a level of accuracy that could justify routine use. To support this later negative assessment, two topic areas are emphasized: 1) the MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence, including the actuarial instrument developed as part of this project (the Classification of Violence Risk